Earlier this year, our social networks were filled with the hashtag #10YearsChallenge, related to the present and the future. We want to give the challenge a new twist, analyzing the electric sector today and the outlook for the next decade.
This article is based on a study carried out by MegaWhat, Comerc Energia’s new energy intelligence company planned to launch in 2019.
What is the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan?
The Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) is a document prepared annually by the Energy Research Company (EPE) with projections for the Brazilian electricity sector.
The latest PDE released in 2018 refers to 2027 and highlights clean source diversification and greater competitiveness as a result of privatization.
Expansion plans do not actually define what is going to happen, but rather point to possible paths for the market considering current policies and actions.
Future energy consumption in Brazil
Brazil’s projected GDP growth until 2027 is estimated as 2.8% per year. Electricity consumption always grows faster than the economy – according to the same study, it should grow 3.6% per year.
An alarming factor is that energy losses are expected to remain practically the same until 2022. The current average loss in the grid is 19.5%, reflecting lack of investment. Over the next five years, this index will drop only slightly, coming to 18.6% in 2027.
Below is the forecast for each submarket:
With expectations of increased consumption, energy market regulators need to anticipate and plan the increase in power supply required to match the 3.6% yearly growth in demand.
Studies show that the country would need to invest R$ 156 billion to expand supply as required between 2022 and 2027.
One of the ways to secure future investment is to hold energy auctions. Find out more about Brazilian power auctions here.
In order to keep pace with the Brazilian economy, the National Integrated System (SIN) must reach the goal of 216 GW installed capacity by 2027.
The Basic Transmission Network also needs expansion. Back in 2017, the transmission system was 141,576 km long. By 2027, the National Interconnected System should reach 196,816.
The planned total is 55 thousand km transmission lines, after more than R$ 100 billion investment.
A new trend for the next few years is the growing importance of energy storage technologies. From 2022, this solution will be considered when calculating network installed power; by 2027, stored power is projected to reach 13.1 GW.
Read more about it: Comerc Energia joins Micropower to provide battery power storage services in Brazil.
Distributed Generation in the next years
Distributed microgeneration and distributed mini-generation are possible solutions for captive consumers to generate their own energy.
Read more: What is Distributed Generation?
Under current legislation, distributed generation can reach 21 GW of installed capacity by 2027. Public Hearings held by the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) aim to review Resolution 482/2012 and the binomial tariff. Under the proposed model, GD capacity would be only 12 GW by 2027.
The Future of Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency means making our energy consumption more efficient. By 2027, Brazil is expected to consume less 41 TWh thanks to energy efficiency. This represents great progress, considering that in 2018 energy efficiency saved only 3 TWh.
Find out more about energy efficiency here.
To have an idea of the magnitude of saving 41TWh, this is equivalent of the sum of the power generated by Itaipu Hydroelectric Plant, the largest in Brazil, plus the Xingó Hydroelectric Plant.
# 10YearsChallenge of the future of energy
The study shows that renewable sources will gain importance in Brazil’s energy matrix, contributing to meet the country’s growing demand for energy. Solutions based on solar, wind and storage technologies will be more widespread, and distributed generation will be more significant, possibly changing the dynamics of power generation.
The next decade will be marked by innovations in the Brazilian electric sector, which once relied almost exclusively on huge projects such as the Itaipu Hydroelectric Power Plant. The 10-year challenge outlines the changed scenario and probable trends in the Brazilian electrical sector.
- The ten-year study was conducted by MegaWhat, Comerc Energia’s Energy Intelligence company planned to launch in 2019.