Energia solar fotovoltaica: a próxima onda do mercado livre de energia

Energia solar deve ultrapassar 3.000 MW ainda em 2019, atraindo mais de R$ 5,2 bilhões em novos investimentos no Brasil

Desde o início 2019, o mercado de energia solar fotovoltaica apresenta uma trajetória animadora tendo ultrapassado a energia nuclear e assumido a posição de sétima fonte mais representativa na matriz energética brasileira, superando a marca de 2.000 megawatts (MW) de potência operacional.

A estimativa é de que a fonte ultrapasse a marca de 3.000 MW ainda em 2019, atraindo ao Brasil mais de R$ 5,2 bilhões em novos investimentos privados, com a instalação de mais de 1.000 MW adicionais em sistemas de pequeno, médio e grande porte, segundo projeções da Associação Brasileira de Energia Solar Fotovoltaica (ABSOLAR).

Os prognósticos são bons, mas ainda estão longe de representar o verdadeiro potencial que a energia solar fotovoltaica tem a oferecer ao Brasil, país com um dos maiores potenciais de geração desta fonte renovável no mundo.

Atualmente, o crescimento da energia solar fotovoltaica ainda está fortemente dependente de projetos desenvolvidos no Ambiente de Contratação Regulada (ACR), ou seja, no chamado “mercado cativo”, composto por leilões de energia elétrica organizados pelo Governo Federal, como os A-4 e A-6 que ocorrerão neste ano, bem como por projetos de geração distribuída atendendo os consumidores cativos na baixa e média tensão.

No entanto, há um outro universo ainda pouco explorado e de grande potencial de expansão para a fonte: o Ambiente de Contratação Livre (ACL), ou seja, o chamado mercado livre de energia. A fonte solar fotovoltaica oferece preços cada vez mais competitivos e já inferiores aos de outras fontes renováveis, como CGHs, PCHs e biomassa, resultado da redução de preços de equipamentos e da acirrada competição entre empreendedores. Com isso, a energia solar fotovoltaica tem todas as características necessárias para se tornar a mola propulsora do próximo grande salto do dinâmico mercado livre de energia no curto, médio e longo prazos.

Adicionalmente, as transformações em andamento no setor elétrico contribuirão de maneira positiva para um cenário promissor da fonte solar fotovoltaica. A primeira delas é a nova configuração dos patamares de carga do setor, que entrou em vigor neste ano, trazendo uma importante valorização do preço da fonte, dado o seu pico de geração nos momentos de patamar de carga pesada, que passará de 3 para 12 horas de vigência, do meio da manhã até o início da noite.

 

Além disso, também há a previsão de entrada em vigor do Preço de Liquidação das Diferenças (PLD) horário, que será um avanço regulatório para o setor no Brasil. Atualmente, o País adota a formação do PLD semanal. Com a inovação, espera-se sinalizar ao mercado um preço de energia mais próximo da realidade operativa.

 

Neste cenário a fonte solar fotovoltaica terá nova valorização significativa pois as simulações atuais de preços horários apontam que a fonte oferta a maior parte de sua geração em horários nos quais a energia elétrica é mais demandada e, consequentemente, mais valiosa e com preço mais elevado. Dessa forma, além de ajudar o sistema, a fonte proporcionará uma maior economia aos consumidores e rentabilidade aos investidores, quando comparada com fontes que têm a maior parte de sua geração nos horários da noite e madrugada. Ainda, representará um alívio a todo o sistema elétrico em horários de alta demanda diurna, como nos meses quentes de verão, e reduzirá a necessidade de despacho de termelétricas emergenciais, caras e poluentes, para suprir a demanda dos consumidores.

Desse modo, além de trazer maior competitividade para fonte solar fotovoltaica, essas evoluções contribuirão para um mercado de energia elétrica mais eficaz, eficiente, realista, transparente, sustentável e competitivo.

Muito em breve, projetos de energia solar fotovoltaica no ACL representarão um novo mar de oportunidades e contribuirão para a competitividade de segmentos importantes da nossa economia, como shopping centers, supermercados, fábricas, entre outros. Isso será possível por meio da estruturação de produtos customizados, adequados especificamente às necessidades de consumidores com maior consumo de energia elétrica no período diurno, em horário comercial, quando a geração solar fotovoltaica mais se destaca.

E a sua empresa, já está preparada para surfar esta nova onda do setor?

Artigo escrito por:
Marcel Haratz – Diretor da Comerc ESCO
Rodrigo Sauaia – Presidente Executivo da ABSOLAR
Ronaldo Koloszuk – Presidente do Conselho de Administração da ABSOLAR

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