Artigo: “O custo marginal da operação: a base do PLD”, por Juliana Chade

Para o atendimento da carga de energia do Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN), o Operador Nacional do Sistema (ONS) realiza o despacho das usinas térmicas e hidrelétricas de acordo com os resultados dos modelos de otimização Newave e Decomp. Além disso, faz o abatimento da carga com as pequenas usinas: biomassa, eólicas e as Pequenas Centrais Hidrelétricas (PCH’s).

O objetivo dos modelos de otimização é o de minimizar o custo total da operação, considerando as usinas disponíveis no sistema. As hidrelétricas são despachadas considerando o seu valor da água. As térmicas são despachadas por ordem de mérito (da mais barata até a mais cara para o atendimento da carga). Em um momento de menos chuva, o modelo otimiza: guarda mais água nos reservatórios, gera maior quantidade de energia nas térmicas e, com isso, o preço encarece. Quando as afluências estão mais altas, o modelo decide gerar mais com hidrelétricas e o custo da operação cai.

Os modelos também apresentam como resultado o Custo Marginal da Operação (CMO), que significa o custo da próxima oferta para o atendimento de uma unidade adicional de carga. O gráfico abaixo mostra a disponibilidade térmica na região Sudeste para a terceira semana de setembro, com os respectivos Custos Variáveis Unitários (CVu’s) das usinas:

Fonte: ONS

Como exemplo, as usinas com disponibilidade (em azul) são as térmicas despachadas por ordem de mérito para esta semana apenas na região Sudeste. Como se percebe, as térmicas possuem disponibilidades e CVu’s variados, ou seja, não aumentam linearmente. Como o CMO para esta semana foi de 182,68 R$/MWh, todas as térmicas abaixo deste custo são despachadas por ordem de mérito.

As usinas em vermelho no gráfico são as despachadas fora da ordem de mérito, contribuindo para o aumento do nível dos reservatórios. São remuneradas via Encargos de Serviços do Sistema por segurança energética (ESS). Elas possuem um CVu acima do CMO e abaixo de 600 R$/MWh. Este valor teto de 600 R$/MWh para o despacho por segurança energética foi definido pelo Comitê de Monitoramento do Setor Elétrico (CMSE), com base em estudo do ONS, o qual mostra que o despacho acima deste valor não seria necessário para o sistema, uma vez que não teríamos risco de atendimento ao SIN.

As usinas em verde, acima dos 600 R$/MWh, estavam gerando anteriormente para garantir a segurança energética. Desde a decisão do CMSE, de 8 de agosto de 2015, elas pararam de gerar fora da ordem de mérito.

Existem dois decks – conjunto de arquivos para simular os modelos – oficiais para Newave e Decomp. As diferenças entre esses decks e os do ONS e da CCEE são:

  1. O ONS ‘roda’ os decks considerando as usinas em teste porque entram para o atendimento da carga do SIN, e consideram restrições elétricas internas ao submercado.
  2. O deck da CCEE não considera usinas em teste, são retiradas as restrições elétricas internas ao submercado, entre outras diferenças.

O CMO resultante da otimização dos modelos realizada pela CCEE é a base do PLD (Preço de Liquidação das Diferenças). Então, o CMO será igual ao PLD desde que esteja entre os limites mínimo e máximo fixados pela Aneel. O PLD mínimo e máximo, em 2015, é de R$30,26/MWh e R$388,48/MWh, respectivamente.

O modelo que minimiza o custo total da operação também influencia no preço das negociações de mercado, principalmente quando está próximo do produto negociado. A previsão do PLD implica em um acompanhamento diário das previsões de afluências, de modo a assessorar consumidores cativos e livres quanto ao melhor período para contratação de energia.

Exemplo da alteração do preço de curto prazo, baseado na curva do PLD:

Fonte: Estudos Comerc
Fonte: Estudos Comerc
Fonte: CCEE
Fonte: CCEE

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