Informativo PLD

Análise Semana 1 (27/06 a 03/07)

A expectativa do ONS de Energia Natural Afluente para esta semana é de 81% da MLT para o Sudeste, 112% para o Sul, Nordeste com 47% e Norte, 81% da MLT. Na média mensal, a previsão da MLT no Sudeste é de 85%, no Sul de 107%, no Nordeste, 52% e no Norte, 91%. A expectativa mensal de Julho, em relação à MLT, sofreu queda em todos os submercados quando comparado ao acumulado do mês de junho até o dia 28/06. No Sudeste, a queda foi de 5% da MLT e no Sul passou de 141% para 107% da MLT. Essa diminuição causou impacto significativo na elevação do CMO.

Fonte: ONS
Fonte: ONS

O ONS informa a previsão de ENA semanal, que é utilizada como dado de entrada para o modelo Decomp na definição do PLD. Nos gráficos abaixo consta a informação semanal realizada e prevista, assim como os resultados gerados pelo modelo como previsão de evolução do armazenamento para as semanas seguintes e o próximo mês. A expectativa é de que a ENA se mantenha abaixo da Média de Longo Termo nos submercados Sudeste, Nordeste e Norte. Já no submercado Sul, espera-se que nas quatro primeiras semanas a ENA fique acima da média, sofrendo uma leve diminuição na última semana do mês.

Fonte: ONS/CCEE
Fonte: ONS/CCEE

Baseada na ENA mensal revisada na semana, o ONS realiza casos de sensibilidade para a semana seguinte com limites superior e inferior.  A figura abaixo ilustra os limites considerados de ENA mensal prevista para julho, assim como o valor esperado de CMO para a próxima semana. A expectativa é que todos se mantenham equalizados, exceto o Nordeste.

Fonte: ONS
Fonte: ONS

Impactos no CMO – Semana 1

O PLD sofreu um leve aumento com relação à semana passada em todos os submercados, ocasionado principalmente pela previsão de vazões menos otimista para o mês de julho.

Com a atualização da Função de Custo Futuro no Modelo Newave para o mês de julho de 2015, houve redução de aproximadamente R$ 56/MWh nos preços de todos os submercados. Além disso, houve atualização da versão 22 do DECOMP, o que resultou em uma redução de R$2,00/MWh.

Outro fator que impactou o CMO foi a previsão de carga mais baixa para as próximas semanas, o que resultou em uma redução de preço de cerca de R$9,00/MWh em todos os submercados.

As demais atualizações praticamente não causaram impacto nos preços.

As figuras abaixo apresentam os fatores que motivaram as mudanças do Custo Marginal da Operação, base para o PLD, de todos os submercados.

Fonte: CCEE
Fonte: CCEE

Despacho Térmico – Semana 4 de junho

Algumas usinas com custo variável unitário maior que o CMO estão sendo despachadas por modalidades de Segurança Energética e Restrição Elétrica, cujo ressarcimento se dá via Encargos de Serviço do Sistema.

Com a queda do CMO no mês de junho, o despacho acontece em todos os submercados. No Sudeste, houve despacho via Segurança Energética, cerca de 1.850MW. No Sul também houve despacho da mesma modalidade, porém apenas duas usinas sendo despachadas, totalizando um montante de cerca de 630MW médios. Da mesma forma, no Nordeste e no Norte o despacho se deu apenas por Segurança Energética em um total de 1.500MW médios e 185MW médios, respectivamente.

METEOROLOGIA

Estamos com padrão de aquecimento das águas do Oceano Pacífico centro equatorial um pouco acima do normal caracterizando El Niño. Por enquanto, o El Niño está classificado como moderado. As regiões Sudeste, Nordeste e Norte apresentam-se no período seco. Para esta semana, há previsão de precipitação nas bacias do Jacuí, Uruguai e Iguaçu, no submercado Sul. Nas bacias do Sudeste deve chover de forma isolada, principalmente, na região litorânea. Há previsão de chuva fraca nos submercados Norte e Nordeste, sobre as bacias do São Francisco e Tocantins, respectivamente. Contudo, os valores acumulados previstos não são significativos.

 

 

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