Meteorologia da semana 02/05/2015 a 08/05/2015

A figura 1 mostra o comparativo entre os valores da precipitação prevista, observada, normal climática para o período de 1981 a 2010 e a porcentagem do desvio em relação à climatologia para a semana de 2/5 a 8/5/2015.

A maior parte do País apresentou acumulado semanal de precipitação acima de 90% da normal climática (figuras 1b e 1d). Destacam-se as regiões ao sul da Bahia, Sudeste e boa parte da região Centro-Oeste, com valores acima da normal climática. Em média, essas regiões apresentaram um total acumulado na semana de 15 mm, quando os valores médios acumulados nesse período ficaram em torno de 30 mm. As regiões centro-norte do Nordeste e Norte apresentaram valores acumulados semanais 60% abaixo da normal climática, em média.

Figura 1: 

 Fonte: Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climático/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais/Operador Nacional do Sistema (CPTEC/INPE/ONS) e Climate Prediction Center/National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (CPC/NCEP/NOAA).

Fonte: Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climático/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais/Operador Nacional do Sistema (CPTEC/INPE/ONS) e Climate Prediction Center/National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (CPC/NCEP/NOAA).

A figura 2 mostra as previsões de precipitação feitas pelos modelos ETA (CPTEC/INPE/ONS), figura 2a, e COSMO (INMET), figura 2b, para semana operativa de 9/5 a 15/5/2015. A figura 3 mostra a normal climática de 1981 a 2010 (OMM) para mesma semana operativa.

Os modelos ETA e COSMO preveem totais significativos de precipitação acumulada para a semana operativa de 9 a 15 de maio sobre as regiões Norte e Centro-Oeste, com valores médios acumulados de 30 mm. Na região Sudeste, a previsão é de que os valores devem ficar em torno da média climática (10 a 15 mm, figura 3). A previsão para as regiões Sul e Nordeste indica valores esperados abaixo da normal climática, respectivamente 30 e 15 mm médios, para o período da semana operativa.

Figura 2: 

Fonte: Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climático/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais/Operador Nacional do Sistema (CPTEC/INPE/ONS) e Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET).
Fonte: Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climático/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais/Operador Nacional do Sistema (CPTEC/INPE/ONS) e Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET).

Figura 3: 

Fonte: Organização Meteorológica Mundial (OMM) e Climate Prediction Center/National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (CPC/NCEP/NOAA).
Fonte: Organização Meteorológica Mundial (OMM) e Climate Prediction Center/National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (CPC/NCEP/NOAA).

Legenda:

Figura 1: Mapas de precipitação para semana de 2/5 a 8/5/2015, em (a) precipitação acumulada prevista pelo modelo ETA (CPTEC/INPE/ONS), em (b) precipitação acumulada observada para semana, em (c) normal climática (1981 a 2010) para a semana e em (d) porcentagem do desvio em relação a normal climática (CPC/NOAA).

Figura 2: Precipitação acumulada prevista pelos modelos em (a) ETA 40 km (CPTEC/INPE/ONS) e (b) COSMO 7 km (INMET) para o período de 25/4 a 1/5/2015.

Figura 3: Normal climática de 1981 a 2010 (OMM) para a semana operativa da ONS de 9/5 a 15/5/2015.

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