Energia solar no Brasil e no mundo

  • O Brasil é um dos países com maior potencial de energia solar no mundo, mas possui apenas 15 MW de capacidade instalada de energia fotovoltaica.

O Brasil possui hoje cerca de 15 MW de potência instalada de energia fotovoltaica, segundo dados da ANEEL, além de seis projetos de empreendimentos fotovoltaicos com potência total 128 MW, que devem ser construídos nos próximos anos. A geração solar é incipiente se comparada à matriz elétrica brasileira, que possui 135.000 MW de potência instalada.

A Alemanha é um exemplo no que diz respeito à geração de energia solar, com 35.500 MW de potência instalada em centrais fotovoltaicas – capacidade instalada superior ao total de usinas termelétricas instaladas no Brasil, atualmente com 25.919 MW de capacidade instalada.

Importante ressaltar que a Alemanha recebe menos da metade da radiação solar diária em comparação com o Brasil – cerca de 2,5KWh/m² contra, em média, 5,9KWh/m² diários do Nordeste brasileiro. O Brasil é um dos países com maior potencial de energia solar do mundo. O mapa abaixo mostra como é distribuída a radiação solar diária por região no Brasil:

mapa_brasil
Fonte: Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar, 2006

Em 2012, estudo da EPE mostrou que, se uma área de 2.400km² fosse coberta com painéis fotovoltaicos, em uma região com insolação média da ordem de 1.400 KWh/m²/ano, essa instalação atenderia integralmente ao consumo do SIN verificado em 2011, com carga de 56.100 MWmed. O cálculo foi realizado considerando um fator de capacidade de 18%.

As perspectivas para a energia solar são animadoras. No 6º Leilão de Energia de Reserva (LER), o teto para comercialização da energia solar foi definido em R$262/MWh, mas, ao final do leilão, os contratos mostraram o preço médio de R$215/MWh, deságio de 18%.

Os leilões de energia solar poderão estimular a indústria de painéis fotovoltaicos no Brasil, pois a importação dos painéis solares expõe os investidores à variação do dólar e encarecem o produto. Em 2015, a variação do insumo foi de 30% devido à desvalorização do real.

A expectativa do mercado e do governo é de forte crescimento deste mercado no médio prazo. O Brasil tem recursos naturais para a produção nacional dos painéis solares uma vez que detém 95% das reservas mundiais do silício, a principal matéria-prima dos equipamentos.

Um ponto de atenção para o uso de energia solar no mercado livre é a inconstância da geração. Os painéis solares geram energia, em média, durante cinco horas por dia. Por mais que uma empresa tenha capacidade instalada de painéis fotovoltaicos para suprir a sua demanda, ela precisará gerenciar o risco de ocorrerem dias nublados ou chuvosos e também à obrigação de comprar energia para modulação de carga referente ao período do dia em que as placas não geram. Por isso, é importante complementar essa geração com outras fontes de energia, sendo importante o gerenciamento do consumo de energia.

 

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