Análise de Sensibilidade: Cenário de vazão mensal para a revisão do PMO. Semana vigente: 9/5 a 15/5/2015.

Fonte: ONS
Fonte: ONS
Fonte: ONS
Fonte: ONS

O gráfico acima representa a ENA verificada entre 1º e 10 de maio e os cenários possíveis de ENA mensal para a revisão da próxima semana (revisão 2). Por exemplo, caso a previsão de ENA mensal do submercado Sudeste fique em 100% da MLT na próxima semana (valor esperado), a previsão do CMO semanal ficará em torno de R$410/MWh. O valor observado até o dia 10 de maio está em 103% da MLT.

No Sudeste/Centro-Oeste, a análise de sensibilidade para a próxima semana está variando entre 91% da MLT (limite inferior) e 109% da MLT (limite superior). No Sul a variação está entre 58% da MLT (limite inferior) e 152% da MLT (limite superior). No Nordeste, a variação está entre 54% (limite inferior) e 71% da MLT(limite superior). No Norte, a variação está entre 98% (limite inferior) e 114% da MLT (limite superior).

No Sul, a ENA mensal observada até o dia 10 de maio foi de 61% da MLT, uma diferença de 46 pontos percentuais em relação ao Valor Esperado (VE). No Norte, a previsão é de redução de ENA mensal, uma vez que o submercado está a 133% da MLT até o dia 10.

A tabela com o valor de CMO, em R$/MWh, de acordo com a análise de sensibilidade da ENA aponta que se o limite superior ocorrer na previsão de ENA mensal da próxima semana (rev.2), o PLD poderá sair do teto em todos submercados.

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