Uma análise sobre os El Niños entre 2009 e 2014

No gráfico da energia natural afluente (ENA) versus preço de liquidação das diferenças (PLD) semanal para o período de 2007 a 2014 (FIGURA 1), observou-se uma relação inversa entre a ENA e o PLD. De 2009 à 2011, quando a ENA esteve alta, o valor da PLD diminuiu. O oposto se deu em 2013 e 2014, com o PLD ao teto. Esse comportamento ocorreu em todos os subsistemas. Quais foram as principais diferenças entre os dois períodos?

Figura 1: Gráfico da Energia Natural Afluente (ENA) versus Preço de Liquidação das Diferenças (PLD) semanal para o período de 2007 a 2014.

Fonte: ONS e CCEE
Fonte: ONS e CCEE

Antes de abordar as razões do comportamento do PLD em relação à ENA, é preciso entender, primeiro, o conceito de ENA. Ela é a energia que pode ser produzida a partir das vazões naturais afluentes aos reservatórios (COMERC, 2015). As vazões (volume de água por unidade de tempo, em metros cúbicos por segundo) naturais afluentes do rio geram energia ao passar na turbina de uma hidrelétrica.

No aspecto físico, a ENA é definida como a multiplicação da vazão natural afluente pela produtibilidade (valor considerado constante) de cada aproveitamento de geração de energia. A soma de todas as ENAS calculadas para cada aproveitamento pertencente a um subsistema reSulta na ENA total para aquele subsistema.

A ENA, portanto, depende diretamente da vazão natural afluente ao aproveitamento. Contudo, a vazão tem relação fundamental com o ciclo hidrológico e, por consequência, com a precipitação pluviométrica. Se o comportamento da precipitação muda, a vazão natural do rio muda e, logo, a ENA também. Há uma relação entre a precipitação e a vazão natural afluente do rio.

Em escala global, existem vários fenômenos que modificam o campo da precipitação. O mais conhecido é o El Niño, chamado de fenômeno El Niño – Oscilação Sul (ENOS).

O ENOS é um bom exemplo de interação oceano-atmosfera, onde uma mudança na temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) do oceano Pacífico Centro-equatorial altera o campo de pressão e de vento em todo o mundo, modificando o campo de precipitação.

O El Niño refere-se à parte oceânica e a oscilação Sul, à componente atmosférica. Para caracterizar o ENOS, criou-se o Índice Multivariado de ENOS (IME). O IME (WOLTER e TIMLIN, 2011) leva em consideração seis variáveis para caracterizar o comportamento da interação oceano-atmosfera sobre o Pacífico Centro-equatorial. Em caso de valores positivos, evidencia-se os El Niños; se negativos, os La Niñas. A Figura 2 traz o gráfico do Índice Multivariado de El Niño – Oscilação Sul (IME) para o período de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2014.

Figura 2: Gráfico do Índice Multivariado de El Niño – Oscilação Sul (IME) para o período de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2014.

Fonte: PSD/ESRL/NOAA.
Fonte: PSD/ESRL/NOAA.

O El Niño eleva os totais pluviométricos na região Sul e as temperaturas sobre a região Sudeste do Brasil. Nas regiões Norte e nordeste ocorre o oposto, a redução das chuvas. Então, por que em 2009 choveu acima da média climática e em 2014, apesar do El Niño, a precipitação ficou abaixo da média climática? Na verdade, os El Niños são divididos, além da classificação da intensidade (fraco, moderado e forte), em dois tipos: El Niño Canônico e El Niño Modoki.

O El Niño Canônico (Figura 3a) caracteriza-se pela anomalia positiva da temperatura do pacífico Centro-equatorial em toda a extensão do oceano Pacífico. Por sua vez, o El Niño Modoki (Figura 3b) apresenta uma cunha de água ligeiramente mais fria, próxima à América do Sul. Os impactos na distribuição e na intensidade da precipitação são distintos entre os tipos de El Niño.

As Figura 4a e 4b revelam as diferenças por meio da anomalia de precipitação anual, calculada em relação à normal climática do período de 1981 a 2010 (OMM, 2014), para os anos de 2009 e 2014, respectivamente.

Figura 3: Configuração daAnomalia da temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM). Em (a) para o ano de 2009, El Niño Canônico, e em (b) para o ano de 2014, El Niño Modoki.

Fonte: PSD/ESRL/NOAA
Fonte: PSD/ESRL/NOAA

Figura 4: Anomalia da precipitação para a estação chuvosa Novembro-Fevereiro dos anos de 2009-2010 (a) El Niño Canônico e 2013-2014 El Niño Modoki.

Fonte: GPCC e PSD/ESRL/NOAA.
Fonte: GPCC e PSD/ESRL/NOAA.

Nas figuras, observa-se uma diferença acentuada sobre as regiões Sudeste e Centro-oeste do Brasil. Em 2009, essas regiões apresentaram valores de precipitação acima ou entorno da média climática. Em 2014, ficaram muito abaixo da climatologia. Em grande parte da bacia do rio Paraná e na região Sul da bacia do rio São Francisco (círculo tracejado, Figura 4b), os valores chegaram a ficar abaixo de 30 mm/mês da normal climática. Didaticamente, se em um determinado mês o normal é chover 100 mm acumulados e só choveu 70 mm, a anomalia foi, portanto, 30 mm/mês abaixo da normal (-30 mm/mês). Ou seja, a precipitação acumulada ficou 30% abaixo da normal.

Além do El Niño Modoki em 2014, a situação foi agravada pelo efeito La Niña no ano anterior. A sequência de um La Niña fraco e um El Niño Modoki fez com que durante esses anos o comportamento da precipitação fosse abaixo da média no período chuvoso sobre as regiões Sudeste e Centro-oeste – regiões onde estão as mais importantes bacias hidrográficas brasileiras.

É importante notar que nem todos os El Niños causam o aumento de precipitação nas regiões Sudeste e Centro-oeste do país. Nesse contexto, os meteorologistas classificam os El Niños em dois tipos – Canônico e Modoki. O El Niño Canônico influência no aumento de precipitação e o El Niño Modoki influência na redução da precipitação. Apesar dos anos de 2009 e 2014 serem caracterizados por anos de El Niño, a diferença entre o tipo influenciou na distribuição de precipitação.

Quais são as perspectivas para os próximos meses?

Na Figura 5, abaixo, segundo o IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society), o “Consenso da previsão da probabilidade da ocorrência do fenômeno El Niño – Oscilação Sul (ENOS) em determinado trimestre do ano de 2015” indica a probabilidade de não ocorrer El Niño. Para os próximos meses, a probabilidade da permanência do El Niño diminuirá, dando lugar a um período neutro. Caso esse período de transição ocorra, deverá ocorrer entre abril e julho. Isto é, o El Niño irá enfraquecer dando lugar a uma fase de neutralidade que deve perdurar pelo menos até o fim do ano. Se passar essa fase de neutralidade, teremos o começo e estabilização de um La Niña.

Figura 5: Consenso da previsão da probabilidade da ocorrência do fenômeno El Niño – Oscilação Sul (ENOS) em determinado trimestre do ano de 2015.

Fonte: IRI
Fonte: IRI

Neste cenário de El Niño se enfraquecendo, são esperadas, nos próximos meses, chuvas próximas à normal climática para todas as regiões do país. Porém, é bom ressaltar que o Brasil está entrando no período seco para as regiões Sudeste e Sul. Em uma perspectiva de longo prazo, caso se confirmem a neutralidade e a mudança para um La Niña, são esperados valores da precipitação próximos à média e, após esse período, sua diminuição para as regiões Sul e Sudeste do país, respectivamente. No Norte e nordeste, caso ocorra o fenômeno La Niña até o início do próximo ano, espera-se um aumento da precipitação para a região.

 

REFERÊNCIAS

COMERC Energia, Disponível em: <http://www.comerc.com.br/>.

Índice Multivariado de El Niño – Oscilação Sul (IME), Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Science Division/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Disponível em: <http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/>, acesso em: 18 de fevereiro de 2015.

International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). El Niño – Southern Oscillation Probabilistic Consensus Forecast. Disponível em: <http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/>, aceso em: 23 de fevereiro de 2015.

Organização Meteorológica Mundial (OMM), Mudança no Período de Calculo das Normais Climáticas para 1981 a 2010. Nota a imprensa. Disponível em: <http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_997_es.html>, acesso em: 18 de fevereiro de 2015.

Schneider, Udo; Becker, Andreas; Finger, Peter; Meyer-Christoffer, Anja; Rudolf, Bruno; Ziese, Markus (2011): GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 6.0 at 0.5º: Monthly Land-Surface Precipitation from Rain-Gauges built on GTS-based and Historic Data. DOI: 10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_M_V6_050

Wolter, K., and M. S. Timlin, 2011: El Niño/Southern Oscillation behaviour since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext). Intl. J. Climatology, 31, 14pp.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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